Deutsche Bank predicts US recession in 2023

13 years ago, when many of the homes on the market were bank-owned, I remember looking up for my clients which bank owned the property I was about to show them. The one name that kept coming up was "Deutsche Bank". I could not believe how many foreclosures they were stuck with at that time. Since they know a thing or two about recessions, I advise you to take their opinion into consideration.

"We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing," Deutsche Bank economists led by Matthew Luzzetti said in the analyst note. "Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession."

Fewer buyers searching for a home

In Los Angeles County, the median price increased last month to $781,050, up from $773,490 in February and $689,440 a year ago — a year-to- year increase of 13.3%.

While sales remained solid, there are signs that imply a market slowdown could be forth coming in the second half of 2022. A quarterly report released by National Association of Home Builders suggests that fewer buyers were trying to find a home to buy in the first quarter of this year. The share of prospective buyers who were actively searching declined to 46% in Q122, back to pre-pandemic levels after reaching a recent peak of 61% in Q221.

For those who had not been successful in finding a home, the share who plan to give up their home search until next year or later rose for the third straight quarter to 25% in Q122, after bottoming out at 20% in Q221.

Higher mortgage rates and double-digit growth in home prices are slowing down the housing demand momentum and the effect may become evident very soon.

Source: California Association of Realtors.

3% of sellers have recently canceled their listing

I'm not seeing a panic with home sellers over the #coronavirus.

Only 3% of sellers nationwide have decided to remove their home from the market and cancel their listing.

I bet most of these homeowners that canceled decided to refi at historic lows rather than sell.

I'm sure some canceled over corona fears.

I would assume that during regular times, cancellations hover around the 1% - 2% range. Inventory of for-sale homes is still low, but over the next few weeks, you can take advantage of lower buyer competition over corona fears.

Housing inventory has gone down 21.8% in LA

Over the last 12 months, housing inventory has gone down 21.8% in the Los Angeles area.

That means there are a lot fewer homes for sale now then there was a year ago.

I expect this trend to continue because low-interest rates will cause there to be an even stronger than usual buyer demand this #Spring.

P.M.I.

It's not the end of the world if you have to get P.M.I., but it should be avoided if possible.

If you can put at least 20% down when buying a home.

By doing so the lender won't require you to get P.M.I.